Russian ruble slide reflects structural pressure, not short-term shocks
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The Russian ruble has weakened 8% against the Kazakh tenge in the past month, with the official NBK rate falling from 6.79 to 5.96 tenge per ruble since July 2025. Net sales of rubles by Kazakh exchange offices turned negative again in April-May 2026, totaling 69.8 billion tenge, as residents sold more rubles than they bought.
The Ruble's Decline
The Russian ruble has depreciated 8% against the Kazakh tenge over the past month, with the official NBK rate falling from 6.79 to 5.96 tenge per ruble since July 2025. Over the past year, the ruble has lost about 15% in exchange offices and over 12% at the official rate. Against the US dollar, the ruble weakened about 5% in the last month, with the Bank of Russia setting the official rate at 78.48 rubles per dollar on July 23 — near a three-and-a-half-month high.
Exchange Office Flows
Net sales of rubles by Kazakh exchange offices turned negative again in April-May 2026, totaling 69.8 billion tenge, after a brief positive period in February-March. For January-May 2026, net sales stood at minus 66.6 billion tenge, compared to minus 107.4 billion tenge a year earlier. The trend has been negative since 2023, reversing the 2018-2022 pattern when residents consistently bought more rubles than they sold.
Regional Patterns
Only seven regions of Kazakhstan recorded positive net sales of rubles, led by Karaganda, East Kazakhstan, and Akmola regions. The largest negative net sales were in Almaty, where exchange offices bought 27.2 billion tenge more rubles than they sold, followed by Astana, Aktobe region, Shymkent, Atyrau region, and West Kazakhstan region.
What's Next
The Bank of Russia has reduced daily foreign currency sales from the National Welfare Fund from 4.62 billion to 0.58 billion rubles as of July 1, 2026, which may further pressure the ruble. It remains unclear whether the ruble's slide will accelerate or stabilize, as analysts point to ongoing structural factors including export revenues, import demand, and interest rate levels.
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Russian ruble slide reflects structural pressure, not short-term shocks
