Analyst sees tenge at 495 per dollar by Q4 2026
This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.
Finam analyst Alexander Potavin forecasts the Kazakh tenge to weaken to 495 per US dollar by the fourth quarter of 2026, trading in a 460–495 range. As of July 21, the dollar stood at 468 tenge, supported by rising oil prices and foreign investor interest in Kazakh government securities.
Current Support Factors
The tenge is currently buoyed by Brent crude oil prices surging to $91 per barrel amid renewed US-Iran tensions. Foreign capital continues flowing into Kazakh government bonds, boosting demand for the tenge. These factors have offset disruptions at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, where drone attacks temporarily halted oil loading at the marine terminal.
Weakening Drivers
Potavin cites the phasing out of state support as the main reason for expected depreciation. The cancellation of the mandatory 50% foreign currency revenue sale requirement for quasi-government entities and planned reductions in National Fund transfers will reduce foreign currency supply. Persistent current account deficit and high inflation further pressure the tenge.
What's Next
The tenge's trajectory will depend on oil price dynamics and the pace of state support withdrawal. It remains unclear whether foreign investor demand can compensate for reduced currency inflows from quasi-government sales.
1 source
Analyst sees tenge at 495 per dollar by Q4 2026
