Solar wind storms may be more extreme than thought, study finds
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A new analysis published in Nature suggests that geomagnetic storms driven by solar wind could be significantly more intense than previously estimated. The study challenges existing models of space weather, which underpin infrastructure risk assessments for power grids and satellites.
The Research
The study, led by N. Sivadas and D. G. Sibeck, reanalyzes decades of solar wind data using updated statistical methods. It finds that extreme geomagnetic storms, like the 1859 Carrington Event, may occur more frequently than the once-per-century estimate from the National Research Council.
Infrastructure Risks
A 2008 National Academies report warned that a severe storm could cause up to $2 trillion in damages globally. The new findings suggest that current risk models, based on Shepherd (2007) and Borovsky et al. (2009), may underestimate the probability of such events.
What's Next
Space weather agencies are expected to review the study's methodology in coming months. It remains unclear whether the findings will prompt updates to international preparedness guidelines.
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Solar wind storms may be more extreme than thought, study finds
