Alpine 100-year floods to occur every 45-80 years by 2100, study projects
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A new study projects that 100-year floods in the Alps will occur every 45 to 80 years by the end of the century due to intensified heavy precipitation from global warming. Researchers from the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF used hourly data from 384 rivers to model the change. The findings, published in Science Advances, are significantly bleaker than earlier estimates.
The Projection
The study projects that by 2100, a 100-year flood in the Alps will occur every 45 to 80 years, depending on the region. This is based on hourly discharge data from 384 rivers, which allowed researchers to capture short, intense precipitation events that daily data miss. The findings are published in Science Advances.
Driving Factor
Heavy precipitation becomes more intense with each degree of global warming, the researchers note. This intensification directly increases flood frequency. The study's projections are significantly bleaker than earlier ones that used daily data, which underestimated the impact of short-duration storms.
What's Next
The research team plans to extend their modeling to other mountain ranges globally. It remains unclear how quickly adaptation measures, such as flood defenses, can be implemented to match the accelerating risk.
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Alpine 100-year floods to occur every 45-80 years by 2100, study projects
