IMF projects Kazakhstan GDP growth at 4.2% in 2026
This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission to Kazakhstan projects GDP growth of 4.2% in 2026, according to preliminary findings released on June 12. The forecast is supported by strong domestic demand and fiscal stimulus, even as external risks persist.
Growth Drivers
The IMF mission, led by Nicolas Blancher, cited robust domestic demand and expansionary fiscal policy as key growth drivers. Inflation is expected to moderate to 6.5% by end-2026, down from 8.2% in 2025, according to Kapital.kz. The current account deficit is projected to narrow to 2.1% of GDP.
Fiscal and Monetary Outlook
The mission recommended gradual fiscal consolidation to rebuild buffers, while maintaining social spending. The National Bank of Kazakhstan should keep a tight monetary stance until inflation is firmly on a downward path, Zakon.kz reported. The IMF also stressed the need for structural reforms to boost productivity and reduce state dominance.
What's Next
The IMF will publish its final Article IV report in the coming months. It remains unclear whether the government will fully adopt the recommended fiscal consolidation path amid pre-election spending pressures.
2 sources
IMF projects Kazakhstan GDP growth at 4.2% in 2026
