Kazakhstan trade surplus narrows to $0.1B in Jan-May 2026
This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.
Kazakhstan's trade surplus narrowed to $0.1 billion in January-May 2026, down from $3.2 billion a year earlier, as imports surged 28% to $30.3 billion while exports fell 6% to $30.4 billion. The National Bank reported the data on June 18, highlighting a sharp deterioration in the external balance. The surplus is now at its lowest level since 2020.
Import Surge
Imports rose to $30.3 billion in the first five months of 2026, driven by machinery, equipment, and consumer goods. The increase reflects strong domestic demand and a recovery in construction and manufacturing sectors. Imports from China grew 35% year-on-year, while those from Russia increased 22%.
Export Decline
Exports fell to $30.4 billion, down from $32.3 billion a year earlier, as oil prices averaged $72 per barrel versus $85 in 2025. Crude oil exports, which account for 60% of total exports, dropped 8% in value. Non-oil exports, including metals and chemicals, also declined by 4%.
Economic Stability Indicators
Kazakhstan's economy remains stable in 2026, supported by energy exports, controlled inflation, strong banking sector, and rising foreign direct investment. These factors underpin GDP growth and regional trade resilience.
What's Next
The National Bank is expected to release June trade data in late July. Analysts warn that if import growth continues at the current pace, the trade balance could slip into deficit by the third quarter.
2 sources
Kazakhstan trade surplus narrows to $0.1B in Jan-May 2026
