IMF backs tight policy, drops overheating warning for Kazakhstan
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded its June mission to Kazakhstan, endorsing the National Bank's tight monetary policy. The fund no longer warns of economic overheating, a concern it had previously raised, while projecting 4.6% GDP growth in 2026.
Mission Findings
The IMF mission, which worked in Kazakhstan from June 3 to 12, assessed economic growth as resilient, supported by high oil prices. The fund projects GDP growth of approximately 4.6% in 2026. Inflation has slowed from 12.9% in September 2025 to 10.4% in May 2026, but remains above target.
Policy Recommendations
The IMF recommended maintaining a restrictive monetary policy to bring inflation down further. It reiterated that the National Bank alone cannot curb inflation; state and quasi-state financing must also be cautious to avoid renewed overheating. The fund no longer mentions overheating as an immediate risk.
Risk Factors
The IMF identified several risks for Kazakhstan: rising domestic demand, higher import prices, worsening global financial conditions, and potential disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Earlier, the IMF described Samruk-Kazyna and Baiterek structures as Kazakhstan's hidden budget.
What's Next
The National Bank is expected to decide on the base rate at its next meeting in July. It remains unclear whether the IMF's softened stance on overheating will lead to a policy shift.
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IMF backs tight policy, drops overheating warning for Kazakhstan
