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Trump Linked Possible Intensification of Strikes on Iran to Congressional Elections

U.S. President Donald Trump said that intensifying the bombing of Iran is 'possible' after November's midterm elections. At the same time, Tehran signaled readiness for a deal before the elections, and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered.

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Trump Linked Possible Intensification of Strikes on Iran to Congressional Elections
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Sources

· 9

Key points

  • Trump said intensified bombing of Iran was possible after the November midterm elections and rejected Tehran's offer to open the Strait of Hormuz as 'not good enough'.
  • Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf threatened to attack Middle East energy infrastructure if Iran's security is not guaranteed.
  • Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on September 24 that Tehran is ready to reach an agreement with the U.S. before the early November midterm elections.
  • Trump previously predicted that the war with Iran would end 'immediately after' the elections and that oil prices would go down.

What happened

U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Time interview published Thursday that intensifying the bombing of Iran is 'possible' after the November midterm elections. Trump rejected Iran's recent offer to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for U.S. concessions, calling it 'not good enough'. He also acknowledged that stockpiles of some munitions are 'a little lower' but insisted the armed forces are in 'excellent shape' and 'actively replenishing' supplies.

The Iranian side released several statements this week. Lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on September 29 that Iran will attack energy infrastructure in the Middle East if its security is not guaranteed. The same report said the threat came as Tehran awaits a U.S. response to its plan to open the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, on September 24, President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled that Tehran is ready to reach an agreement with the U.S. to end the war before the early November congressional midterm elections. The IRGC published a letter to American voters, blaming the U.S. for starting the war.

What changed

Compared with summer reports, the situation in the strait has changed. In July, Asian refiners faced supply delays after the strait briefly opened but then shut again. Now, according to tanker tracking, flows of oil and petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to almost 80% of the prewar level. At the same time, Iran is diverting oil exports and essential goods imports to Caspian Sea ports: falling water levels have reduced vessel capacity from 6,000 to 4,000 tons, and up to 1,800 trucks have piled up at the Nordooz border crossing.

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