Fed and Bank of Japan: New Rate Forecasts Driven by AI and Oil
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook linked upward pressure on inflation to AI investment and oil prices, while former Bank of Japan official Kazuo Momma put the probability of an October rate hike at 20–30%. Goldman Sachs allows for another Fed rate hike on October 27 if oil prices decline.
Sources
· 6Глава ФРС Кук прогнозирует сохранение инфляции из-за ИИ и нефти
1Экс-чиновник Банка Японии оценил вероятность повышения ставки в октябре в 20-30%
2Goldman Sachs прогнозирует ещё одно повышение ставки ФРС в 2026 году при падении цен на нефть
3Goldman Sachs и JPMorgan ожидают повышения ставки ФРС 15-16 сентября
4Банк Японии, по данным источников, склоняется к повышению ставки на 0,25 п.п. 18 сентября
5Протоколы ФРС показали, что несколько политиков были готовы повысить ставку на июльском заседании
6Key points
- Lisa Cook said AI investment and rising oil prices will continue to put upward pressure on inflation in the coming months.
- Kazuo Momma put the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike at the October meeting at 20–30%, calling it a possible second consecutive increase.
- Goldman Sachs expects another Fed rate hike at the October 27 meeting on the condition of a sustained decline in oil prices; by December the bank forecasts Brent at $85.
- Ahead of the September 15–16 meeting, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan expected a 25 basis point Fed rate hike; markets assessed the probability at 87%, compared with about 70% before the data.
- Fed minutes showed several policymakers were ready to raise rates as early as July; the Fed kept the range at 3.50–3.75%.
What happened
Former Bank of Japan executive director Kazuo Momma estimated the probability of a key rate hike at the October meeting at 20–30%, which would be the second consecutive increase. He added that the Bank of Japan's policy focus has shifted to preventing inflation from exceeding the 2% target, and the core inflation rate accelerated to 2.6% in August from 2.3% in July.
Goldman Sachs forecasts another Fed rate hike in 2026 at the October 27 meeting, provided oil prices decline sustainably. The bank expects Brent to fall to $85 per barrel by December; at the time the forecast was published, oil had already dropped nearly 13% from its recent peak to around $98.44 per barrel.
What to watch
The Fed's October 27 meeting has been cited by Goldman Sachs as a possible date for another rate hike, and rate futures earlier priced the probability of a hike at the October 27–28 meeting above 50%.
Earlier
- The Bank of Japan, according to sources, was leaning toward raising its rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25% at the September 18 meeting.
- Fed minutes showed several policymakers were ready to raise rates at the July meeting; the Fed kept its rate in the 3.50–3.75% range.
What's Next
The Fed's October 27 meeting, at which Goldman Sachs allows for another rate hike.
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