Persian Gulf oil exports hit 16.5 mln bpd in September, matching prewar level

October 4, 2026 at 12:04 AM3 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

Crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf, excluding Iran, totaled at least 16.5 million barrels per day from September 1 to 28, matching the prewar average, according to Kpler. About 60 percent of that volume, or 9.9 million barrels per day, physically crossed the Strait of Hormuz, while the rest bypassed it via pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The recovery comes even as European diesel prices hit record levels on October 1.

Key Facts

Persian Gulf crude exports, excluding Iran, reached at least 16.5 million barrels per day from September 1 to 28, matching the prewar average, according to Kpler.
In September, approximately 60% of the region's oil exports, or 9.9 million barrels per day, physically crossed the Strait of Hormuz, down from 83% before the war.
More than 70% of the crude that crossed the Strait of Hormuz in August was transferred from one tanker to another at sea in the Gulf of Oman, according to Kpler.
European Union figures published on October 1 showed retail diesel fuel prices at record levels, and prices also increased in the United States.
Energy market analyst Ellen R. Wald said Iran's ability or willingness to attack vessels in the gulf is declining, but higher insurance costs and reliance on U.S. military escort maintain a war premium in oil prices.

Export Volume Recovery

Crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf, excluding Iran, totaled at least 16.5 million barrels per day from September 1 to 28, according to commodity analytics firm Kpler. This figure matches the average prewar level for the region when Iran is excluded. The recovery in crude flows has not resolved the refinery bottleneck that has caused a global spike in diesel prices. European Union figures published on October 1 showed diesel pump prices at record levels, and prices have also surged in the United States.

Shift in Export Routes

Before the war, 83 percent of the region's crude crossed the Strait of Hormuz. In September, approximately 60 percent of volumes, or 9.9 million barrels per day, physically crossed the strait, while the remaining 40 percent bypassed it via pipelines and other routes in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Kpler reported that more than 70 percent of the crude that crossed the strait in August was transferred from one tanker to another at sea in the Gulf of Oman. These offshore transfers have become an important part of the new export system, under which vessels deliver oil to larger tankers outside the Persian Gulf.

Iran's Diminishing Leverage

Iran did not formally control the Strait of Hormuz, but its influence was based on its ability to make passage through it dangerous for shipping. New routes, pipelines, and offshore transfers are weakening this leverage, although the strait remains a vulnerable point for the region's oil exports. Energy market analyst Ellen R. Wald said Iran's ability or willingness to attack vessels in the gulf is declining. She stressed that higher insurance costs, threats to shipping, and reliance on U.S. military escort maintain a war premium in oil prices. Most vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz receive support from the U.S. Navy, while some carriers lack insurance coverage.