Scope warns US debt to hit 160% of GDP within decade

October 3, 2026 at 02:47 PM2 min

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Scope Ratings kept the US credit rating at AA- with a stable outlook but warned that federal debt will reach 160% of GDP within ten years without faster growth or fiscal adjustment. The agency said the US is increasingly vulnerable to shifts in investor sentiment. Net interest costs are projected to reach an exceptionally high level by 2031.

Key Facts

Scope kept the US credit rating at AA- with a stable outlook, three notches below the top grade.
The agency projects US government debt to reach 160% of GDP within ten years.
Net interest costs on US debt are expected to reach an exceptionally high level by 2031.
US government debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time in August 2026, according to the Treasury.
Moody's downgraded the US from Aaa to Aa1 in May 2025, leaving no major agency with a top rating for the country.

Rating and Outlook

Scope Ratings affirmed the United States' credit rating at AA- with a stable outlook. The rating is three notches below the maximum and two notches below the assessments of Moody's, Fitch, and S&P Global Ratings. Scope last downgraded the US in October 2025. The agency is one of five rating firms whose assessments the European Central Bank uses for collateral eligibility and is the only one based in Europe.

Debt Trajectory

Scope warned that large budget deficits and rising government debt make the US increasingly vulnerable to shifts in investor sentiment. The agency projects federal debt to reach 160% of GDP within ten years without substantially higher economic growth or significant fiscal adjustment. Net interest costs are expected to reach an exceptionally high level by 2031. US government debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time in August 2026, according to the Treasury Department. Former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in March that the current debt level is manageable but warned that debt is growing significantly faster than the economy.

Congressional Risks

Scope noted risks from the upcoming congressional standoff over the debt ceiling, the statutory limit on federal borrowing. Moody's downgraded the US from Aaa to Aa1 in May 2025, citing rising debt burden and servicing costs. After that downgrade, the US lost its top rating from all three major agencies: Moody's, Fitch, and S&P.