US sees Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely before 2028, sources say
This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.
US officials assess a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, despite Xi Jinping's 2027 military readiness directive. The shift stems from PLA delays amid anti-corruption campaigns and Beijing's interest in Taiwan's 2028 election outcome. Beijing may consider force in 2028 or later if President Lai Ching-te wins reelection.
Key Facts
- US officials assess a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, according to two current US officials, one former US official, and a person familiar with the matter.
- Xi Jinping has instructed the PLA to be ready by 2027 to take Taiwan by force if needed, the centenary of the PLA's founding.
- Beijing may increasingly look to use force in 2028 and beyond if Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth consecutive term, especially if President Lai Ching-te is reelected.
- Taiwan's presidential office spokesperson Karen Kuo Ya-hui said Taiwan will strengthen self-defense and work with democratic allies to maintain the status quo.
- The Pentagon declined to comment; China's foreign ministry and embassy in Washington did not respond to requests for comment.
US Assessment Shift
The assessment, not previously reported, updates the years-long understanding among US officials that Xi wanted his military ready to potentially take Taiwan by force in 2027. The main reasons for the shift include delays in military readiness amid the Chinese Communist Party's anti-corruption campaign and Beijing's eagerness to see the results of Taiwan's 2028 election. Some Chinese officials hope the 2028 election could usher in a government more amenable to bringing the island under Chinese control. One US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said of a possible Lai reelection: "If that happens, I think 2028 becomes pretty sporty."
Taiwan and China Reactions
Taiwan's presidential office spokesperson Karen Kuo Ya-hui said under Lai's leadership, Taiwan will strengthen self-defense capabilities and work closely with international democratic allies, including the US, to maintain the status quo and deter threats. Kuo added that Taiwan will not abandon its commitment to democracy and freedom in the face of any military threat. China has never ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under its control but has never publicly confirmed a 2027 readiness order. In a speech this week, Xi referred to Taiwan and talked about promoting the peaceful development of cross-strait relations to achieve "reunification."
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