Uzbekistan GDP grows 8.5% in H1 2026, central bank holds rate at 14%

October 1, 2026 at 02:07 PM2 min

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Uzbekistan's GDP grew 8.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, exceeding the central bank's initial forecast of 5.5-6.5%. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its policy rate at 14% at all four monetary policy meetings in the second and third quarters. The strong growth came even as utility tariff hikes pushed inflation higher.

Key Facts

Uzbekistan's GDP grew 8.5% year-on-year in H1 2026, up from 7.2% in H1 2025.
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its policy rate at 14% at all four monetary policy meetings in Q2 and Q3 2026.
In current prices, Uzbekistan's H1 2026 GDP reached nearly 1.1 quadrillion soums, or about $89 billion at the July 1, 2026 official exchange rate of 12,009 soums per dollar.
The central bank raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast three times since December, from 5.5-6.5% to 7.5-8.0% in July.
The IMF in June called Uzbekistan's GDP growth 'exceptionally strong' and flagged overheating as a risk factor.

GDP Dynamics

Uzbekistan's economy grew 8.7% year-on-year in Q1 2026, then slowed slightly to 8.5% for the first half. The H1 2026 growth rate compares with 7.2% in the same period of 2025. In current prices, H1 GDP reached nearly 1.1 quadrillion soums, or about $89 billion at the official exchange rate of 12,009 soums per dollar on July 1, 2026. By comparison, Kazakhstan's H1 GDP was $146 billion with 4.1% year-on-year growth, calculated at the average annual exchange rate.

Central Bank Forecast Revisions

Since December 2025, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan has revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast upward three times. The December baseline scenario assumed growth of 5.5-6.5%, raised to 6.5-7.0% in January 2026. In April, after Q1 data, the forecast was raised to 7.0-7.5%, and in July, after H1 results, to 7.5-8.0%. The central bank attributed the July upgrade to sustained investment growth, including FDI, and expected fiscal spending in H2 2026.

IMF Assessment

The IMF's June report described Uzbekistan's GDP growth as 'exceptionally strong' and identified overheating as a risk factor alongside deteriorating global conditions. The IMF noted gradual disinflation to moderate levels, improved budget and external balances, and adequate international reserves. The IMF recommended containing demand pressures, ensuring macro-financial stability, and accelerating reforms to strengthen productive capacity and private-sector-led growth.