FT projects Europe-Asia winter tug-of-war for LNG supplies

September 27, 2026 at 10:33 PM2 min

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Europe and Asia are preparing for a winter tug-of-war over limited LNG cargoes, the Financial Times reports. Asian buyers are offering higher prices than European ones, raising the chance of cargo diversions to Asia. LNG prices have hit multi-year highs and more than doubled since before the Iran conflict.

Key Facts

Asian buyers are offering higher prices for LNG cargoes than European buyers, increasing the likelihood of supply diversions to Asia.
LNG prices have reached multi-year highs and more than doubled compared with levels before the Iran conflict.
Asian countries are signing long-term LNG contracts again, with buyers willing to pay a premium for guaranteed volumes.
European buyers are more cautious about long-term contracts because of new EU methane emissions reporting rules.
The outcome of the Europe-Asia competition will largely depend on winter weather, according to FT.

Price Dynamics

LNG prices have reached multi-year highs and more than doubled since before the conflict around Iran, FT notes. Further price movements will depend on the resumption of regular shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Asian buyers are now offering more for LNG cargoes than European buyers, raising the probability of supply redirection to Asia.

Long-Term Contracts

Asian countries have resumed signing long-term agreements to reduce dependence on the spot market. Eni's global natural resources COO Guido Brusco said Asian buyers are willing to pay a premium for guaranteed volumes. One LNG producer told FT that Asian clients are now seeking contracts with a duration of 20 years. Long-term contract prices remain relatively stable due to expected new production capacity, mainly in the US, over the next three to four years.

European Caution

European buyers are more cautious about long-term contracts, fearing they could conflict with new EU rules requiring importers to measure and disclose methane emissions. Aktor Group chairman Alexandros Exarchou suggested the EU may have to retreat from the new rules after the winter LNG battle and rising energy-driven inflation. Boston Consulting Group managing director Anders Porsborg-Smith warned that a cold winter could bring prices similar to those in 2022.