Goldman Sachs says Europe gas prices must top €100/MWh by December

AI digestMimile.ai EditorialAugust 24, 2026 at 08:30 PM

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Goldman Sachs says Europe gas prices must top €100/MWh by December

Goldman Sachs projects European natural gas prices must exceed €100 per megawatt-hour by December 2026 to secure winter storage if the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists. The bank's base case is €50/MWh, and current Dutch TTF futures trade near €66.85/MWh. Europe's storage is 62% full, the lowest in 17 years for this time of year.

Key Facts

Goldman Sachs estimates December 2026 TTF prices would need to move above €100/MWh if Middle East energy exports normalize only gradually through 2027.
European gas storage is 62% full as of the latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, the lowest level for this time of year in nearly two decades.
The Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures traded at $78 (€66.85) per MWh on Monday morning, up 1.5%.
Goldman Sachs' base case for TTF prices is €50 per MWh, making the €100/MWh scenario 110% above that level.

Goldman Sachs Price Warning

Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note this weekend that current benchmark prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility will not be enough for Europe to manage storage through winter. In a scenario where Middle East energy exports normalize only gradually through 2027, the bank estimates December 2026 TTF would likely need to move above €100/MWh. That level is 110% above Goldman Sachs' base case of €50 per MWh. As of Monday morning, Europe's benchmark Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures were up 1.5% at $78 (€66.85) per MWh, far below the €100/MWh threshold.

Storage and Supply Squeeze

Current European storage levels are about 62% full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. That is the lowest level for this time of year in nearly two decades and well below the five-year average. Current inventory levels are at the lowest in 17 years, and supply available for purchase is tighter than it was in 2022. Since the Middle East crisis began, Europe has started losing the competition with Asia for spot LNG supply amid spiking prices and the absence of most Qatari LNG term volumes.

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Goldman Sachs says Europe gas prices must top €100/MWh by December

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Goldman Sachs says Europe gas prices must top €100/MWh by December

Key Facts

Goldman Sachs Price Warning

Storage and Supply Squeeze

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