NBK deputy governor links tenge's 12% gain to oil prices and export surge

September 21, 2026 at 02:30 PM2 min

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Kazakhstan's tenge has strengthened 12% against the dollar since the start of 2026, reaching 447.08 per dollar on September 21. National Bank Deputy Governor Aliya Moldabekova attributed the rally to high oil prices, a widening trade surplus, and foreign inflows into government securities. The regulator may launch a phased liberalization of foreign-currency deposit rates amid the currency's strength.

Key Facts

The tenge strengthened 3.1% in September, from 461.57 to 447.08 per dollar.
Kazakhstan's exports rose 16% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2026, while imports grew only 4%.
Non-resident holdings of Kazakhstan government securities increased by about $1.8 billion since the start of the year to more than $5.8 billion.
Prices for ferrous and non-ferrous metals rose 33% year-on-year, uranium 15%, grain 42%, and coal 48%.
CPC Blend crude trades at a premium of $2–4 per barrel to Dated Brent.

Currency Market Drivers

Deputy Governor Aliya Moldabekova said the tenge's appreciation reflects supply of foreign currency exceeding demand in the domestic market. High oil prices above $100 per barrel and a CPC Blend premium of $2–4 to Dated Brent support export revenues. Prices for metals, uranium, grain, and coal rose between 15% and 48% year-on-year, benefiting about 80% of Kazakhstan's exports. Exports grew 16% in January–July 2026, while imports rose only 4%, widening the trade surplus. Consumer imports have declined for seven consecutive months, reducing demand for foreign currency.

Capital Inflows

Quasi-state and corporate borrowers raised significant foreign-currency debt, reducing their need to buy dollars domestically. Non-resident demand for Kazakhstan government securities added about $1.8 billion since January, reaching over $5.8 billion. These inflows provide additional foreign capital to the domestic market, further supporting the tenge.

Policy Response

The National Bank may begin a phased liberalization of interest rates on foreign-currency deposits amid the tenge's strength. Moldabekova noted the currency's appreciation runs counter to the historical trend of second-half weakening.