NBK to hold base rate at 17% on July 24, analysts say
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The National Bank of Kazakhstan is set to announce its base rate decision on July 24, with analysts widely expecting a hold at 17% after June's cut. The pause reflects slow disinflation and risks to oil exports, which could pressure the tenge.
The Expected Decision
The National Bank of Kazakhstan will announce its base rate decision on July 24, with most analysts forecasting a hold at 17%, according to Orda.kz. The central bank cut the rate from 18% to 17% on June 5, its first reduction this year, citing gradual disinflation. Annual inflation stood at 10.4% in May, down from a peak of 12.9% in September 2025.
Global and Local Risks
Economist Ruslan Sultanov argues the NBK will follow global central banks in pausing after a tightening cycle, awaiting fresh data on inflation, growth, and oil prices. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add uncertainty to energy costs. For Kazakhstan, high oil prices support the tenge via currency inflows, but risks have emerged at the transport stage: shipowners are avoiding the CPC terminal after attacks on vessels, potentially slowing exports and reducing foreign currency earnings.
Outlook for Further Cuts
Analysts at BCC Invest expect the rate to fall to around 16.5% by early September and stay there through end-2026, contingent on further disinflation and no external shocks. Participants in the NBK's July macroeconomic survey see the rate at 16% by end-2026. However, high rates alone struggle to curb inflation driven by tariff hikes, fuel costs, and imported goods.
What's Next
The NBK will announce its decision on July 24 at 15:00 Astana time. It remains unclear whether oil export disruptions will materialize and force a more cautious stance.
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NBK to hold base rate at 17% on July 24, analysts say
