McKinsey: AI infrastructure draws $384B in H1 2026, returns lag

September 21, 2026 at 09:55 AM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

McKinsey's 2026 technology trends report shows AI infrastructure and model architectures attracted $384 billion in the first half of 2026, surpassing the $145 billion invested in all of 2025. Only 37% of organizations report company-wide positive EBIT impact from AI, despite 89% using it in at least one business function. The report highlights a widening gap between AI investment and proven financial returns.

Key Facts

AI infrastructure and model architectures attracted $384 billion in the first half of 2026, up from $145 billion for all of 2025.
Only 37% of organizations report any positive company-wide EBIT impact from AI, while 89% use AI in at least one business function.
TSMC raised its Arizona investment commitments to $265 billion in July 2026, the largest foreign direct investment in U.S. history.
More than 2,500 gigawatts of renewable energy and storage projects are waiting in grid connection queues worldwide, according to the IEA.
Agentic software development attracted $4.9 billion in 2025, a 221% increase, boosted by SpaceX's $60 billion acquisition of Cursor.

Investment Surge

McKinsey's annual ranking of 14 technology trends shows AI infrastructure and model architectures received $384 billion in the first half of 2026, compared with $145 billion for all of 2025. This is the largest investment volume among all 14 categories tracked by the consultancy. If the current pace continues, full-year 2026 investment would reach approximately $769 billion. Agentic AI overall grew 952% year over year to $9.9 billion, while cybersecurity held $77.5 billion and connectivity $60.5 billion. Life sciences and bioengineering remain the largest non-AI-infrastructure category at about $101 billion, despite a 10% decline.

Returns Gap

Eighty-nine percent of organizations regularly use AI in at least one business function, but only 37% report any positive company-wide EBIT impact. The gap between adoption and financial return is a top question for boards of directors in 2026, according to McKinsey. The report notes that AI is entering a phase where the scale of investment already outpaces proven economic returns.

Energy and Geopolitics

U.S. data centers serving AI workloads are projected to consume as much electricity by 2030 as the entire state of California does today. Global energy investment in 2026 could reach $3.4 trillion, with $1.6 trillion going to generation. TSMC increased its Arizona investment commitments twice in a year, from $65 billion in March 2025 to $165 billion, then to $265 billion in July 2026. China halted exports of gallium, dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium to Japan for several months in 2026, metals critical for magnets and semiconductors. More than three-quarters of cybersecurity vulnerabilities are now classified as zero-day, meaning an exploit exists by the time of public disclosure.