LNG prices could rise a third as Hormuz supply crunch persists

September 17, 2026 at 04:30 PM2 min

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LNG prices have room to rise by about a third from current high levels amid low European gas inventories and fierce competition for spot supply between Europe and Asia. Europe is heading into winter with one of the lowest levels of gas in storage in the past two decades as the war in the Middle East crippled LNG supply from Qatar. Spot LNG prices in Northeast Asia jumped to $28.40 per MMBtu this week.

Key Facts

Spot LNG prices in Northeast Asia jumped by $2.70 from last week to $28.40 per MMBtu this week.
Gas storage sites across Europe are less than 70% full, compared to 82% for this time of year in 2025 and a five-year average of above 80%.
In a colder-than-usual winter, LNG prices could jump from nearly $30 per MMBtu now to $40 per MMBtu, equivalent to about $240 per barrel Brent, according to Wood Mackenzie chairman Simon Flowers.
LNG supply from Qatar and the UAE remains mostly trapped in the Persian Gulf, tightening the global market and sending prices in Asia and Europe to the highest levels since the end of 2022.

Price Outlook

LNG prices have room to rise by about a third from current very high levels, according to analysts and industry executives. Spot LNG prices in Northeast Asia have jumped by $2.70 from last week to $28.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) this week, as assessed by Energy Intelligence for deliveries one to two months ahead. In a colder-than-usual winter, LNG prices could jump from nearly $30 per MMBtu now to $40 per MMBtu, which would be equivalent to about $240 per barrel Brent and bring demand destruction, said Simon Flowers, chairman of Wood Mackenzie, at the Gastech conference in Bangkok.

European Storage Crisis

Europe is heading into winter with one of the lowest levels of gas in storage in the past two decades as the war in the Middle East crippled LNG supply from Qatar. Gas storage sites across Europe are less than 70% full at present, compared to 82% for this time of year in 2025 and a five-year average of above 80%. Cederic Cremers, president of Integrated Gas at Shell, the world's top LNG trader, said at the Gastech conference in Bangkok that Europe is at a historically low storage level heading into the end of fall.

Supply Constraints

With LNG supply from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) still mostly trapped in the Persian Gulf, the global market has tightened and sent prices in both Asia and Europe in recent days to the highest levels since the end of 2022. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz are not expected to pick up materially by the end of the year, making a cold winter the real stress test for the market.