OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 bpd, fifth straight reduction

September 15, 2026 at 08:00 AM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, down 200,000 bpd from August, marking the fifth consecutive monthly cut. The cartel cited slowing OECD economies and weaker Chinese growth, while Middle East tensions and shipping disruptions continue to cloud supply. The downgrade comes as OPEC+ raised August output to 29.5 million bpd, led by Iraq.

Key Facts

OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, down 200,000 bpd from the August estimate.
The September report marks the fifth consecutive monthly downgrade by OPEC.
OPEC+ production rose to 29.5 million barrels per day in August, with Iraq contributing the largest increase.
A drone attack halted the 1,200-km East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia, which carried 4–5 million bpd, about 4% of global supply.
The International Energy Agency presented an even more pessimistic oil demand forecast than OPEC.

Demand Forecast Downgrade

OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, a reduction of 200,000 bpd from the August assessment. The September report marks the fifth consecutive monthly cut, citing slowing OECD economies and less dynamic growth in China. The cartel worsened its European demand decline forecast from 120,000 bpd to 190,000 bpd, and for the Asia-Pacific region from 170,000 bpd to 210,000 bpd. The International Energy Agency released an even more pessimistic oil demand forecast, according to the 24KZ correspondent.

Supply and Geopolitical Disruptions

OPEC+ increased production to 29.5 million barrels per day in August, with Iraq providing the most notable rise. Overall Gulf output declined due to supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Iran amid logistical disruptions. Houthi forces are attempting to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, seizing islands and settlements while intensifying strikes on Saudi territory. A drone attack halted the 1,200-kilometer East-West pipeline, which transported 4–5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 4% of global supply. Political analyst Khalid Bartafi warned that the loss of five million barrels per day of export oil would have severe global consequences.

Saudi Export Routes

Saudi Arabia has almost no secure oil export routes remaining after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi attacks disrupted the Bab el-Mandeb passage. The halt of the East-West pipeline leaves only the Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline to the Mediterranean as an export corridor.