OPEC cuts 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.3 mln bpd
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OPEC on Monday lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 1.5 million bpd in its previous estimate. The revision reflects weaker-than-expected economic activity in China and Europe. The group now sees total global demand averaging 106.2 million bpd next year.
Demand Revision Details
OPEC's latest monthly report, released Monday, cut the 2026 demand growth forecast by 200,000 bpd. The organization cited slower industrial output and transport fuel consumption in China, as well as persistent economic headwinds in the euro zone. This marks the third consecutive downward revision since April 2026.
Market and Policy Context
The downgrade comes ahead of OPEC's next ministerial meeting scheduled for August 3, where members will discuss production quotas for the fourth quarter. Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that the revision may increase pressure on Saudi Arabia and Russia to delay planned output increases. Brent crude traded near $72 per barrel on Monday, down 2% on the day.
Revised Demand Growth Figure
OPEC's latest monthly report cut the 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 barrels per day, down from the previous estimate. The revision, the third consecutive reduction since April, was attributed to slower industrial output and transport fuel consumption in China, as well as persistent economic headwinds in the euro zone.
What's Next
OPEC members are set to review the demand data at the August 3 meeting in Vienna. It remains unclear whether the group will adjust its production strategy or maintain current output levels amid weakening demand signals.
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OPEC cuts 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.3 mln bpd
