NBK says tax reform only marginally expands revenue base

September 14, 2026 at 09:38 AM1 min

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Kazakhstan's tax reform has only marginally expanded the revenue base, with the budget still dependent on transfers and borrowing, the National Bank said in its August monetary policy report. Non-oil deficit narrowed to 7.1% of GDP in the first half, while the overall deficit widened to 3.2% of GDP.

Key Facts

The National Bank of Kazakhstan published its assessment in the August monetary policy report.
Budget expenditures fell to 23.5% of GDP in the first half from 24.7% a year earlier, despite nominal spending growth of 11.7%.
Debt service costs reached 2.43 trillion tenge over seven months against an annual plan of 3.47 trillion tenge.
The republican budget deficit widened to 2.80 trillion tenge by end-July from 2.13 trillion tenge at end-June.
Transfers totaled 2.80 trillion tenge in January–July, including 2.32 trillion tenge guaranteed transfer from the National Fund.

Budget Consolidation

Budget consolidation is achieved mainly through expenditure restraint, according to the National Bank. Expenditures fell to 23.5% of GDP in the first half from 24.7% a year earlier, despite nominal growth of 11.7%. The non-oil deficit narrowed to 7.1% of GDP, while the overall deficit widened to 3.2% of GDP.

Debt Service Burden

Rising debt service costs are reducing room for other expenditures. Over seven months, 2.43 trillion tenge was spent on debt service against an annual plan of 3.47 trillion tenge. The republican budget deficit widened to 2.80 trillion tenge by end-July from 2.13 trillion tenge at end-June. To finance the deficit, 4.68 trillion tenge in loans was raised in January–July.

Transfers and Revenue

Transfers continue to play a significant role in budget revenue formation. In January–July, transfers reached 2.80 trillion tenge, including 2.32 trillion tenge guaranteed transfer from the National Fund. The guaranteed transfer for the full year 2026 is set at 2.77 trillion tenge.