Bank of Russia holds key rate at 14% after ten straight cuts

September 11, 2026 at 03:51 PM3 min

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The Bank of Russia kept its key interest rate at 14% on September 11, ending a sequence of ten consecutive cuts since June 2025. The decision matched the consensus forecast of 24 out of 30 analysts surveyed by RBC. Persistent price pressure and accelerating underlying inflation prompted the hold.

Key Facts

The Bank of Russia held its key rate at 14% on September 11, the first pause since April 2025.
The central bank had cut the rate at ten consecutive meetings from June 2025 through July 2026.
Annual inflation reached 6.3% as of September 7, above the central bank's 4% target.
Business price expectations rose to 22.7 points in September from 21.1 points in August, the third monthly increase.
Household inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 13.7% in August from 14.7% in July, according to an inFOM survey.

Rate Decision

The Bank of Russia's board of directors kept the key rate at 14% at its September 11 meeting. The regulator had previously held the rate in April 2025, then lowered borrowing costs at ten consecutive meetings from June 2025 through July 2026. The decision aligned with the consensus forecast of 24 out of 30 analysts polled by RBC; the remaining six expected a cut. The central bank cited stronger current price pressure as a reason for the hold, noting that sustainable price growth accelerated to 5–6% annualized in recent months.

Inflation Dynamics

Seasonally adjusted price growth reached 11.6% annualized in July, up from 5.3% on average in the second quarter. Underlying inflation accelerated to 7% from 4.6% in the previous quarter. Annual inflation stood at 6.3% as of September 7, above the central bank's 4% target. Weekly Rosstat data showed price growth slowed through most of August but re-accelerated in the first week of September, with prices rising 0.05% over seven days and annual inflation reaching 6.29%. The central bank noted that volatile items such as motor fuel and fruit and vegetable products significantly influenced recent price dynamics.

Expectations and Risks

Business price expectations rose to 22.7 points in September from 21.1 points in August, marking a third consecutive monthly increase, according to the Bank of Russia's monitoring. Household inflation expectations for the next 12 months declined to 13.7% in August from 14.7% in July, based on an inFOM survey commissioned by the central bank. The central bank gave no separate signal on the direction of the next rate change, saying future decisions will depend on inflation dynamics, inflation expectations, and assessments of internal and external risks. The situation on the fuel market remains an additional risk factor, with its full contribution to consumer prices to become clear only next year, according to Kirill Tremasov, adviser to the central bank governor. Budget policy parameters are another source of uncertainty: the new three-year budget has not yet been published, and the finance ministry previously said the return to a zero structural primary budget balance is postponed until 2029, implying a larger public sector contribution to aggregate demand in 2026–2028, according to Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin.