NBK cuts base rate to 16.75% as inflation slows

AI digestMimile.ai EditorialJuly 24, 2026 at 12:05 PM

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NBK cuts base rate to 16.75% as inflation slows

The National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its base rate by 25 basis points to 16.75% on July 24, citing nine consecutive months of disinflation. Annual inflation slowed to 10.3% in June from 10.4% in May, while the economy grew 4.1% in the first half of 2026.

Rate Decision

The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan reduced the base rate from 17% to 16.75% on July 24, with a corridor of ±1 percentage point. The move follows a larger 1 percentage point cut in June from 18% to 17%. According to the regulator, the decision accounts for the achieved decline in annual inflation and allows a proportional adjustment of monetary tightness.

Inflation and Growth

Annual inflation fell to 10.3% in June, down from 10.4% in May, marking the ninth consecutive month of decline. Food inflation eased to 10.4% from 10.7%, while non-food inflation held at 11.7% and services inflation rose to 9%. The National Bank attributed disinflation to its monetary policy, tenge appreciation, stable consumer activity, and anti-inflation measures by the government and the bank. GDP grew 4.1% in the first half of 2026, with investments up 9.6% and non-oil sector investments excluding budget funds rising 28.9%.

Risks and Outlook

The National Bank noted that inflation risks remain elevated, linked to fuel prices, utility tariffs, consumer demand, and external pressures. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could push up energy prices, while global food markets show mixed trends. The regulator emphasized that the decision is based on the assumption of consistent fiscal consolidation and adherence to budget parameters. Significant deviations would trigger a reassessment of the risk balance and rate trajectory.

What's Next

The next scheduled decision on the base rate will be announced on September 4, 2026, at 12:00 Astana time. It remains unclear whether the central bank will continue easing or pause, given the still-high inflation risks and external uncertainties.

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Finance

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