Global oil market faces supply deficit of up to 5 million barrels per day

September 11, 2026 at 12:44 AM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

The global oil market recorded a supply deficit in August, with output falling below 100 million barrels per day while demand exceeded available volumes by about 4 million barrels per day. The gap may widen to 5 million barrels per day in September, according to preliminary estimates cited by OilGazLook. The shortfall reflects forced production outages and disruptions in Middle East shipping routes.

Key Facts

August global oil supply fell below 100 million barrels per day, while demand exceeded available volumes by about 4 million barrels per day.
The supply-demand gap may widen to 5 million barrels per day in September, according to preliminary estimates from OilGazLook.
Forced production outages averaged 6.7 million barrels per day in August, up from 5 million barrels per day in July.
Average Brent crude price reached $91 per barrel in August, $7 higher than the July level, according to EIA.
EIA expects supply disruptions to persist into the fourth quarter of 2026, though some volumes may be restored via alternative routes.

Supply Deficit

Global oil supply fell below 100 million barrels per day in August, while demand exceeded available volumes by about 4 million barrels per day. The gap may widen to 5 million barrels per day in September, according to preliminary estimates from OilGazLook. Forced production outages averaged 6.7 million barrels per day in August, up from 5 million barrels per day in July. EIA attributes the supply reduction partly to disruptions in Middle East shipments.

Price Impact

Average Brent crude price reached $91 per barrel in August, $7 higher than the July level, according to EIA. The supply deficit is already reflected in prices, with Brent holding above $100 per barrel in related coverage. If the deficit persists, missing volumes will be covered by inventories, increasing price sensitivity to new supply disruptions.

Kazakhstan Exposure

For Kazakhstan, the global oil market situation is particularly significant because price dynamics directly affect export revenue and budget receipts. EIA notes that operational estimates may be revised as new data arrives, but the possible 5 million barrel per day gap in September indicates continued market tightness.