Middle East conflict knocks out over 20% of regional refining capacity

August 21, 2026 at 02:56 PM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

More than 20% of Middle East refining capacity is offline because of the war, with the region's combined capacity around 9.6 million barrels per day. European diesel prices have risen more than 70% since the conflict began, while US gasoline prices are up about 60%. Russian refining has fallen almost 30% to below 4 million barrels per day after months of drone attacks, prompting Moscow to ban diesel exports in July.

Key Facts

More than 20% of Middle East refining capacity, from a regional total of about 9.6 million barrels per day, is offline due to the conflict.
European diesel prices have risen more than 70% since the war began, while US gasoline prices are up about 60%.
Russian refining throughput has fallen almost 30% to below 4 million barrels per day in recent months, prompting a July ban on diesel exports.
European diesel refining margins have more than tripled since February to exceed $75 per barrel, and US margins hit a record $100 per barrel earlier this week, up more than 140%.
Brent crude trades around $90 per barrel, about 25% above its level on Feb. 28 when the conflict began but below the peak of $118 per barrel.

Middle East Refining Losses

More than 20% of the Middle East's refining capacity, a regional total of about 9.6 million barrels per day, has been knocked out by the war. Exports of refined products remain limited by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Loss of crude supplies from Persian Gulf countries has forced several refineries, especially in Asia, to reduce output.

Russian Refining Disruptions

Russian refining has contracted by almost 30% in recent months, falling to below 4 million barrels per day. Drone attacks on Russian refineries have persisted for several months and significantly reduced the country's processing volumes. Moscow was forced in July to introduce a ban on diesel exports.

Fuel Prices and Margins

Brent crude is trading around $90 per barrel, about 25% above its level at the start of the conflict on Feb. 28, but well below the peak of $118 per barrel. European diesel prices have risen more than 70% since the war began, while U.S. gasoline prices are up about 60%. Diesel refining margins in Europe have more than tripled since February to exceed $75 per barrel, and U.S. margins this week reached a record $100 per barrel, up more than 140%. Fuel stockpiles built before the war have been nearly exhausted, removing a cushion that had softened the impact.