Almaty and Astana to retain Central Asia economic lead through 2026
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Almaty and Astana are projected to remain Central Asia's dominant economic hubs in 2026, with combined output of roughly $107 billion in 2025. Kazakhstan's two largest cities benefit from unmatched scale, developed capital markets, and an investment-grade sovereign rating. Tashkent is growing faster at 11.3% in 2025 but remains far smaller, at about $29 billion.
Key Facts
- Almaty and Astana together generated roughly $107 billion in 2025, according to updated Kazakh figures.
- Astana's economy grew about 10% and Almaty's about 5% in 2025.
- Kazakhstan accounts for more than half of Central Asia's GDP and roughly two-thirds of its inward FDI stock.
- Tashkent's economy was about $29 billion in 2025, roughly 40% the size of Almaty's and three-quarters that of Astana.
- Tashkent's economy grew 11.3% in real terms in 2025, according to preliminary national figures.
Two-City Economic Engine
Almaty and Astana have developed complementary roles, with Almaty remaining the region's largest business and financial hub while Astana accumulates political, institutional and corporate weight. Kazakhstan's updated figures put Astana's growth at about 10% and Almaty's at about 5%. Together, the two cities generated roughly $107 billion in 2025, anchoring much of Central Asia's commerce. Kazakhstan alone accounts for more than half of the region's GDP and roughly two-thirds of its inward FDI stock, according to TCA's Central Asia Balance Sheet.
Capital Markets and Investment Grade
Kazakhstan has Central Asia's most developed capital markets, combining the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) in Almaty with the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) and Astana International Exchange (AIX) in Astana. This gives companies access to equity, debt, institutional investors and financial infrastructure at a scale no other market in the region currently matches. Kazakhstan is the only Central Asian country with an investment-grade sovereign rating, lowering the country-risk premium and reducing financing costs relative to lower-rated regional markets. Almaty and Astana have long served as regional bases for major global companies, creating an established ecosystem of corporate management, finance, professional services and skilled labor.
Tashkent's Rapid Growth
Tashkent, Uzbekistan's political and commercial capital, had an economy of about $29 billion in 2025, about 40% the size of Almaty's and three-quarters that of Astana. Tashkent's economy grew by 11.3% in real terms in 2025, according to preliminary national figures. Uzbekistan's population is almost twice Kazakhstan's, giving Tashkent access to a much larger domestic market and labor pool. If productivity and investment fail to keep pace with population growth, the demographic advantage could increasingly act as a constraint rather than help Tashkent close the gap with Almaty and Astana.