Kazakhstan abandons National Fund savings goal, shifts to infrastructure spending

September 2, 2026 at 12:00 PM2 min

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Kazakhstan has officially abandoned its goal of growing the National Fund to $100 billion by 2029, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced on August 23 and 28. The government will instead withdraw nearly 12 trillion tenge from the fund over 2027–2029 to finance large-scale infrastructure projects. The policy shift comes as officials cite urgent needs in housing and utilities, where heating network wear exceeds 80%.

Key Facts

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced the policy change on August 23 and 28, 2026, stating the government will no longer 'sit on this money like a dog in the manger.'
The 2027–2029 financial plan provides for withdrawals of almost 12 trillion tenge from the National Fund over three years.
The guaranteed transfer will amount to 2–2.4 trillion tenge per year, with the remainder coming from targeted withdrawals.
Updated government forecasts now project National Fund assets at $70.6 billion by 2029, down from the original target of $100 billion.
Officials justify the shift by citing infrastructure deterioration: heating plant wear is about 66% and network wear exceeds 80%.

Policy Reversal

President Tokayev first signaled the change on August 23 after voting in parliamentary elections, then elaborated on August 28 at the first session of the Kurultai. He declared that the government would no longer 'sit on this money like a dog in the manger,' effectively ending the previous savings doctrine. The new concept, dubbed the 'Big Construction,' will be financed through direct withdrawals from the National Fund. The original goal of reaching $100 billion in fund assets by 2029 was set in Tokayev's 2022 election program.

Financial Implications

The 2027–2029 budget plan calls for withdrawing nearly 12 trillion tenge from the National Fund. Guaranteed transfers will total 2–2.4 trillion tenge annually, with targeted withdrawals covering the rest. Updated government forecasts now see fund assets at $70.6 billion by 2029, a shortfall of nearly $30 billion from the original target. The increased infrastructure spending from the fund threatens macroeconomic stability and worsens non-oil fiscal resilience, according to the analysis.

Infrastructure Justification

Officials point to severe wear in housing and utilities infrastructure: heating plants are about 66% worn and networks exceed 80% wear. The government argues that investment is needed to prevent an urban crisis. The policy shift deepens the dependence of non-oil GDP and the construction sector on oil revenues through state orders and wages.