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Myanmar military regains ground via conscription, air strikes, China backing

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Myanmar military regains ground via conscription, air strikes, China backing

Myanmar's military has reversed opposition gains from 2023 and 2024, retaking strategic towns including Falam in Chin State. The shift follows a mass conscription drive, a devastating air campaign, and Chinese-brokered ceasefires that weakened rebel forces. The conflict has now killed more than 100,000 people and displaced 3.9 million.

Key Facts

  • Falam, the only town in Chin State with an airport and a trade route to India, fell to Myanmar's military in April after a six-month assault involving hundreds of air strikes and roughly 1,000 ground troops.
  • By late May, the military claimed control of the entire northern part of Chin State, with three more towns falling within weeks of Falam's capture.
  • ACLED data puts conflict deaths above 100,000, while the UN reports 3.9 million displaced and one in three people requiring humanitarian assistance.
  • A mass conscription drive has refilled military ranks with tens of thousands of troops, according to analysts cited by Al Jazeera.
  • China has brokered ceasefires between the military and some ethnic armed groups while helping choke off weapons supplies to others.

Fall of Falam

Rebel fighters abandoned Falam in April after running out of bullets, ending a year of opposition control over the border town near India. The military assault on Falam lasted six months and included hundreds of air strikes and a ground offensive by roughly 1,000 troops. Falam's strategic value lies in its airport—the only one in Chin State—and its command of a trade route to the Indian border. Salai William Chin of the rebel Chin Brotherhood said the loss taught fighters that capturing a town and holding it are very different challenges.

Military Resurgence

Within weeks of Falam's fall, three more towns in Chin State were captured, and by late May the military claimed control of the entire northern part of the state. The opposition's coordinated offensives in 2023 and 2024 had stripped the military of dozens of towns, but those gains have now given way to a steady withdrawal from urban centres. Analysts attribute the reversal to a conscription drive that added tens of thousands of troops, an air campaign that killed hundreds of civilians, and Chinese support. China has brokered ceasefires between the military and some powerful ethnic armed groups while helping choke off weapons supplies to others.

Conflict Toll

The war began after the February 2021 coup, when young people formed People's Defence Forces following a brutal crackdown on unarmed protesters. Powerful ethnic armed organisations controlling Myanmar's borderlands, some fighting for autonomy since 1948, have aided the resistance. ACLED data shows deaths in the conflict have surpassed 100,000, while the UN reports 3.9 million displaced and one in three people requiring humanitarian assistance.

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Myanmar military regains ground via conscription, air strikes, China backing