Myanmar military defectors say airstrikes on Rakhine civilians will intensify
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Two Myanmar military defectors told The Diplomat that the junta will intensify airstrikes on civilians in Rakhine State to defend three townships still under its control. Major Myint Zaw Than and Sergeant Kyaw Han Toe said the attacks will increase in the coming months. The defectors also predicted the military will eventually lose those townships to the Arakan Army.
Key Facts
- Two defectors, Major Myint Zaw Than and Sergeant Kyaw Han Toe, told The Diplomat on February 25 that the military will increase airstrikes on civilians in Arakan region.
- The defectors said the military must defend three townships still under its control: Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung.
- An estimated 228 civilian casualties, including 89 deaths and 139 injuries, were reported from airstrikes in Rakhine State between January 1 and August 13 this year.
- The UN Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar reported a marked escalation in aerial attacks across the country in the months preceding the elections, with attacks continuing unabated since.
- Sergeant Kyaw Han Toe predicted the military would eventually be defeated by the Arakan Army and lose control of the three townships.
Defectors' Warning
Major Myint Zaw Than and Sergeant Kyaw Han Toe, who defected from the Myanmar military, told The Diplomat in an interview on February 25 in Myanmar's Arakan region that the military will intensify airstrikes on civilians. Myint Zaw Than stated, "There will be more airstrikes on the civilians in Arakan in the coming months because the military has to defend the three townships [Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Manaung] still under its control." Kyaw Han Toe predicted that the military would eventually be defeated by the Arakan Army and lose control of those three townships. The defectors identified the support of the people for the Arakan Army as the outfit's biggest strength, enabling a series of victories against the military over the past decade.
Escalating Aerial Attacks
An annual report by the United Nations Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar covering July 2025 to June 2026 pointed to a marked escalation in aerial attacks across the country in the months preceding the elections. The report noted the military was increasingly using motorized paragliders, gyrocopters, and drones to carry out low-altitude airstrikes with unguided explosives. An estimated 228 civilian casualties, including 89 deaths and 139 injuries, were reported as a result of airstrikes in Rakhine State from January 1 to August 13 this year.
Resistance Coordination
Kyaw Han Toe said resistance groups in other regions of Myanmar will emerge victorious if they are able to work together, predicting the junta would collapse within three years if they do. He attributed recent military successes in regaining territories to a lack of coordination among resistance groups, contrasting it with Arakan where "there is only one organization [opposed to the military] and so only one chain of command." The defectors clarified they had received salaries and health care regularly while in service, and Myint Zaw Than alleged that a small section of military personnel is involved in drug trafficking.
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Myanmar military defectors say airstrikes on Rakhine civilians will intensify
