Finland's Stubb says Russia will not attack NATO, sees Ukraine winning war
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Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Russia will not attack NATO, calling the alliance the world's strongest military power. He said Russia's only escalation option is mobilization, likely this autumn, but its monthly losses of 30,000-35,000 soldiers make a two-front war impossible. Stubb also said Ukraine is in its strongest position since the full-scale invasion and will win the war.
Key Facts
- Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Russia will not attack NATO, citing the alliance's superior deterrence based on missiles, conventional forces, and nuclear weapons.
- Stubb said Russia's only escalation option is mobilization, likely this autumn, but its monthly losses of 30,000-35,000 soldiers exceed the 27,000 new recruits, making a two-front war impossible.
- Stubb said Ukraine is in its strongest military, political, and financial position since the full-scale invasion and will win the war by surviving as an independent and sovereign state.
- Stubb said economic difficulties—inflation, banking crisis, interest rates, or high troop losses—will not force Moscow to end the war; only a sense that the regime is threatened would do so.
NATO Deterrence Assessment
Stubb told Bild in an interview published on Saturday, August 29, that Russia will never want to attack the world's most powerful military alliance. He said NATO's deterrence potential is stronger than that of any other military power, relying on missiles, conventional armed forces, and nuclear weapons. Stubb said Moscow's goal is to sow fear among Europeans, making them debate whether Russia will escalate, use nuclear weapons, or attack NATO and Europe.
Russian Military Constraints
Stubb said Russia's only escalation option is mobilization, which he expects to be conducted this autumn. He cited Russian army losses of 30,000 to 35,000 soldiers monthly, while only 27,000 new recruits are enlisted. Stubb said he sees no possibility for Russia to suddenly mobilize forces for a two-front war.
Ukraine's Position and War Endgame
Stubb said Ukraine is now in a stronger and more advantageous position than at any time during the full-scale war, in military, political, and financial spheres. He stated that Ukraine has the advantage and will win the war, defining victory as surviving and remaining an independent and sovereign state. Stubb said economic difficulties such as inflation, banking crisis, interest rates, or high troop losses will not lead to the end of the war. He said the conflict may end when Russia feels the current regime is under threat and recognizes that continuing the war no longer benefits the regime.
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Finland's Stubb says Russia will not attack NATO, sees Ukraine winning war
