Oxford Economics projects US tariffs to cut Canada GDP by 0.3 points in 2027

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Oxford Economics projects US tariffs to cut Canada GDP by 0.3 points in 2027

Oxford Economics projects that US tariffs will reduce Canada's GDP by 0.3 percentage points in 2027. The forecast comes as Canada prepares to impose retaliatory tariffs on $20bn of US goods on September 8. Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled the measures on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on $20bn of Canadian goods.

Key Facts

Oxford Economics estimates US tariffs will shave 0.3 percentage points off Canada's GDP next year.
Canada's retaliatory tariffs on more than 700 US products, valued at $20bn, take effect on September 8.
Trade consultant Ashley Kalyn expects upwards of 100,000 Canadian jobs to be lost.
Canada sends about 70 percent of its exports to the United States.

Tariff Measures

On Saturday, the US imposed 50 percent tariffs on $20bn worth of Canadian goods after trade negotiations collapsed. On Monday, Trump threatened Canada with new 50 percent levies on all car products starting January 1. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled retaliatory measures against more than 700 US products, also valued at $20bn. The Canadian tariffs are tiered at 15, 25 and 50 percent and are slated to come into effect on September 8.

Economic Impact

Canada's economy is a 10th the size of its US counterpart, making it especially vulnerable to US trade penalties. Manufacturers in Quebec, New Brunswick, and Ontario will be affected the most, as will exporters in British Columbia. Those provinces are vulnerable because they produce items that are easy to substitute, including cement, paper, wood, beverages, clothing, plastics and electronics. Ashley Kalyn, an international trade consultant at Peacock Tariff Consulting in Toronto, said her firm has already heard that some clients are planning to shut down factories and lay off workers if the tariffs remain in place.

1 source

Oxford Economics projects US tariffs to cut Canada GDP by 0.3 points in 2027

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Oxford Economics projects US tariffs to cut Canada GDP by 0.3 points in 2027

Key Facts

Tariff Measures

Economic Impact

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