Baltic States Arm for Russian Threat as Leaked Letter Reveals Fears
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A leaked letter from Baltic, Polish, and Finnish EU commissioners to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warns of a deteriorating security environment and increased Russian airspace violations and drone incursions. The letter, dated July 30, is part of a series of alarms about Russian aggression that culminated in CIA Director John Ratcliffe's surprise visit to Moscow on August 25. Baltic diplomats confirmed additional intelligence on Russian false flag operations but no indication of an imminent conventional attack.
Key Facts
- The leaked letter was sent to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and signed by the three Baltic European commissioners, Kaja Kallas, Andrius Kubilius, and Valdis Dombrovskis, as well as the Polish and Finnish commissioners.
- The letter, dated July 30, cites a "deteriorating security environment" and an "increased frequency of airspace violations and drone incursions."
- CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise visit to Moscow on August 25 to urge the Kremlin against escalating with US allies, particularly Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
- The Wall Street Journal reported on August 6 that US intelligence indicated Russia may test NATO resolve with a limited incursion as early as this fall.
- All three Baltic states have reached or will soon reach NATO's 2035 target of spending 5 percent of GDP on defense.
The Leaked Letter
The letter seen by RFE/RL was sent to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and signed by the three Baltic European commissioners, Kaja Kallas, Andrius Kubilius, and Valdis Dombrovskis, as well as the Polish and Finnish commissioners. Dated July 30, the letter speaks of a "deteriorating security environment" amid an "increased frequency of airspace violations and drone incursions." The letter was one of a series of alarm bells sounded about Russian aggression over the course of the summer that culminated in CIA Director John Ratcliffe's surprise visit to Moscow on August 25. Ratcliffe flew to Moscow to urge the Kremlin against escalating with US allies -- particularly Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania -- sources briefed about the visit confirmed to RFE/RL on April 26.
Intelligence Assessments
The Wall Street Journal reported on August 6 that US intelligence stated Russia may test NATO resolve with a limited incursion as early as this fall. Baltic diplomats who spoke to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity confirmed that there was additional intelligence during the summer of Russian false flag operations but no indication about an imminent conventional attack. They were also keen to point out that such operations might not be limited to the Baltics, a concern reinforced by recent cases of alleged or suspected Russian involvement in assassination attempts, fires, and drone incursions in several NATO countries, including Germany, Poland, and Slovakia.
Baltic Defense Preparedness
All three Baltic states -- Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia -- have reached or will soon reach NATO's 2035 target of spending 5 percent of GDP on defense. The EU has pledged and begun channeling roughly $14 billion of loans for defense and security investment in the region. Estonia is at the forefront of cutting-edge defense technology, including DefSecIntel Solutions, whose AI software analyzes captured images and presents information on a single screen. Jaan Hein, the company's vice president, told Current Time that the product is being used to protect the borders of Estonia as well as a dozen other countries. Another Estonian start-up, Wayren, has developed software installed on smartphones, tablets, and other battlefield devices to protect data exchange from outside interference.
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Baltic States Arm for Russian Threat as Leaked Letter Reveals Fears
