Kazakhstan's GDP diversification masks stagnant export structure

AI digestMimile.ai EditorialAugust 26, 2026 at 11:45 AM

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

Kazakhstan's GDP diversification masks stagnant export structure

Kazakhstan's non-commodity share of gross value added rose to 78% in 2024 from 72.8% in 2010, while commodity exports still accounted for 64.1% of total exports in 2025. The diversification is driven mainly by non-exportable services, trade, construction and the public sector, not by new export-oriented manufacturing.

Key Facts

The commodity sector's share of gross value added fell to 15.8% in 2024 from 24% in 2010.
The non-commodity sector grew at an average annual rate of 4.5% from 2010 to 2024, while the commodity sector grew at 1.9%.
Commodity exports accounted for 64.1% of total exports in 2025, down from 64.9% in 2016 but still repeating the structure of a decade earlier.
Almaty and Astana drive most of the diversification, largely due to registration of commodity giants from other regions and re-export development, not local industrial growth.

GDP vs Export Metrics

Assessing diversification by gross value added shows the commodity sector's share fell to 15.8% in 2024 from 24% in 2010, while the non-commodity sector rose to 78% from 72.8%. The physical volume index confirms the non-commodity sector grew at an average annual rate of 4.5% from 2010 to 2024, compared with 1.9% for the commodity sector. By export structure, however, commodities still accounted for 64.1% of total exports in 2025, down from 64.9% in 2016 and a peak of 74.3% in 2018. The two perspectives are not contradictory: GDP diversification is driven mainly by services, trade, construction and the public sector, which are largely non-exportable.

Regional Disparities

Analysis of data for Kazakhstan's 20 regions from 2013 to 2025 shows that enterprise registration distorts statistics. Almaty and Astana account for most of the diversification, but their results come from commodity giants headquartered there and re-export development, not from industrial growth within the cities. Processing dynamics are uneven across the country, with no unified trend; only some regions show genuine industrialization. In many cases, the rising share of finished goods stems from declining raw material output rather than from new plants.

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Kazakhstan's GDP diversification masks stagnant export structure

vlast.kz

Vlast.kz

Finance

Kazakhstan’s special economic zones fail to boost exports, investment data shows

Kazakhstan’s 18 special economic zones have contributed just 1% of GDP and 0.3% of exports over 25 years, an analysis by Vlast.kz reveals, citing official data. The zones attracted 11.2 trillion tenge in declared investments, but internal ministry figures show only 4.7 trillion tenge in actual inflows. The government ordered a reform of the SEZ model in February after President Tokayev acknowledged the system’s exhaustion.

Finance

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President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has ordered Kazakhstan's GDP to reach $450 billion by 2029. Turkistan Region attracted over 1 trillion tenge in investment in seven months, a 137.5% increase. The region's investment portfolio includes 122 projects worth 2.8 trillion tenge.

Politics

Kazakhstan GDP grows 4.1% in H1 2026 as state-funded construction surges 15.2%

Kazakhstan's economy expanded 4.1% in the first six months of 2026 from a year earlier, the Bureau of National Statistics reported. Construction output jumped 15.2%, driving the growth alongside transport, manufacturing, trade and communications. The strong figures come even as a significant share of construction is tied to state-financed projects, muddying the picture of private-sector momentum.

Kazakhstan's GDP diversification masks stagnant export structure

Key Facts

GDP vs Export Metrics

Regional Disparities

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