Kazakhstan GDP grows 4.1% in H1 2026 as state-funded construction surges 15.2%
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Kazakhstan's economy expanded 4.1% in the first six months of 2026 from a year earlier, the Bureau of National Statistics reported. Construction output jumped 15.2%, driving the growth alongside transport, manufacturing, trade and communications. The strong figures come even as a significant share of construction is tied to state-financed projects, muddying the picture of private-sector momentum.
GDP Growth and Sectoral Drivers
Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product rose 4.1% in January–June 2026, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. Growth was led by construction (+15.2%), transport, manufacturing, trade and communications. Regional data showed the strongest momentum in subsidised regions: Turkistan, Ulytau and Shymkent. The expansion follows a 6.5% surge in 2025 and returns to a more moderate pace after 5.1% in 2023 and 4% in 2024.
State-Financed Construction Impact
The construction sector’s 15.2% increase was underpinned by state-backed projects. Residential housing completions reached 8.5 million square metres, up 6.7% year-on-year. Large-scale initiatives such as the ‘Comfortable School’ programme are funded through the National Fund via Samruk-Kazyna Construction, while medical facilities rely on local budgets or public-private partnerships where the state guarantees repayment. Mortgage-linked housing programmes also boosted the numbers. This reliance on public spending raises questions about the sector’s organic growth.
What's Next
The National Bank of Kazakhstan is scheduled to review its base rate in September 2026 amid ongoing fiscal expansion. It remains unclear whether the government can sustain growth without further widening the budget deficit or drawing more from the National Fund.
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Kazakhstan GDP grows 4.1% in H1 2026 as state-funded construction surges 15.2%
