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Kazakhstan plans to withdraw $26.2 bln from National Fund by 2029

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Kazakhstan plans to withdraw $26.2 bln from National Fund by 2029

Kazakhstan's government projects GDP growth above 5% annually for 2027-2029 while planning to withdraw 26.2 billion dollars from the National Fund. The budget deficit will exceed 4.5 trillion tenge in 2027, with spending at 30.2 trillion tenge against revenues of 25.6 trillion tenge.

Key Facts

  • The government projects average annual real GDP growth above 5% for 2027-2029, driven by non-oil sectors.
  • Inflation is expected to reach up to 9.5% in 2027, then slow to a 6-8% corridor in 2028-2029.
  • The National Bank plans to withdraw 4.1 trillion tenge from the economy to curb excess money supply.
  • Republican budget spending in 2027 is set at 30.2 trillion tenge, with revenues of 25.6 trillion tenge, leaving a deficit of over 4.5 trillion tenge.
  • The National Fund is projected to accumulate 70.6 billion dollars by 2029, while the state plans to withdraw 26.2 billion dollars.

Growth Projections

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin presented the government's economic forecast for 2027-2029 at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday. The base scenario projects average annual real GDP growth above 5% for the three-year period. Non-oil sectors, particularly manufacturing, construction, transport, and communications, are expected to drive the expansion.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

The government allows for inflation up to 9.5% in 2027, with a target corridor of 6-8% for 2028-2029. National Bank Chairman Timur Suleimenov noted that inflation has fallen from a peak of 12.9% in September last year to 10.2%, declining for ten consecutive months. The central bank attributes the slowdown to moderately tight monetary policy and tenge appreciation. The regulator plans to withdraw about 4.1 trillion tenge from the economy to reduce excess money supply and further slow inflation.

Budget and National Fund

Republican budget expenditures for 2027 are planned at 30.2 trillion tenge, an increase of 2.5 trillion tenge over the current year's plan. The largest spending item is the social sector at 10.5 trillion tenge, or 34.9% of total expenditures, including indexation of social payments. Support for the real sector is set at 3.9 trillion tenge, while spending on the security bloc will reach 3.3 trillion tenge, 257 billion tenge above the current plan. The budget deficit for 2027 is projected at over 4.5 trillion tenge, with revenues of 25.6 trillion tenge against expenditures of 30.2 trillion tenge. The National Fund is expected to accumulate 70.6 billion dollars by 2029, but the state plans to withdraw 26.2 billion dollars over the period.

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Kazakhstan plans to withdraw $26.2 bln from National Fund by 2029