KEGOC proposes keeping Almaty coal units running amid southern power deficit
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KEGOC head Nabi Aitzhanov proposed keeping coal-fired units at Almaty's TPP-2 and TPP-3 running through the 2026-2027 heating season to cover a projected 2,300 MW deficit in southern Kazakhstan. The proposal comes despite plans to launch 757 MW of gas-fired capacity at the two plants by end-2026. Kazakhstan's total peak demand is forecast at 18,200 MW, up 2.7% from last season.
Key Facts
- KEGOC head Nabi Aitzhanov said Almaty TPP-2 and TPP-3 need to generate at least 800-850 MW combined to cover southern demand and avoid overloading the North-East-South transit line.
- Southern Kazakhstan's deficit is projected at 2,300 MW from October 2026 through March 2027, with December and January consumption peaking at 5,100 MW.
- By end-2026, KEGOC expects to commission 557 MW at Almaty TPP-2, 200 MW at TPP-3, 190 MW at Turkestan, and 336 MW of renewables, totaling 1,283 MW.
- Kazakhstan's total peak demand for the 2026-2027 heating season is forecast at 18,200 MW, up 2.7% from 17,724 MW last season, with electricity consumption rising 3.4% to 69.19 billion kWh.
- KEGOC shares fell 2.2% to 1,432 tenge on KASE on August 17 after the August 14 blackout, despite first-half net profit rising 59.4% to 54.6 billion tenge.
Coal Retention Proposal
KEGOC chairman Nabi Aitzhanov told a government meeting that Almaty TPP-2 and TPP-3 must provide at least 800-850 MW combined to meet southern demand and prevent overloading the North-East-South transit line. He said if gas-fired generation cannot be ensured, the existing coal-fired equipment should remain in operation. The proposal reverses the planned conversion of both plants from coal to gas by end-2026.
Southern Zone Deficit
Southern Kazakhstan's deficit is projected at 2,300 MW from October 2026 through March 2027, covered by power flows from the surplus northern zone via the North-East-South line. In October 2026, southern consumption is forecast at 4,425 MW against generation of 2,125 MW. December and January consumption peaks at 5,100 MW, with generation at 2,800 MW. The deficit narrows only in February, when consumption falls to 4,820 MW and generation to 2,520 MW.
Capacity Additions and Market Reaction
By end-2026, KEGOC expects to commission 557 MW at Almaty TPP-2, 200 MW at TPP-3, 190 MW at Turkestan, and 336 MW of renewables, totaling 1,283 MW. Kazakhstan's total peak demand for the 2026-2027 heating season is forecast at 18,200 MW, up 2.7% from 17,724 MW last season. Electricity consumption is projected to rise 3.4% to 69.19 billion kWh, while generation reaches 69 billion kWh, forcing imports of about 200 million kWh. KEGOC shares fell 2.2% to 1,432 tenge on KASE on August 17 after the August 14 blackout, despite first-half net profit rising 59.4% to 54.6 billion tenge.
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KEGOC proposes keeping Almaty coal units running amid southern power deficit
