Kazakhstan's unobserved economy shrinks to 15.69% of GDP in 2025
This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.
Kazakhstan's unobserved economy fell to 15.69% of GDP in 2025, down from 19.75% in 2021, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. The decline of over 4 percentage points in four years leaves about 25 trillion tenge of economic activity outside direct statistical observation. The largest regional contribution comes from Almaty at 3.78% of national GDP.
Key Facts
- The unobserved economy's share of GDP fell from 19.75% in 2021 to 15.69% in 2025, a decline of more than 4 percentage points.
- In absolute terms, 15.69% of Kazakhstan's 159.6 trillion tenge GDP in 2025 equals about 25 trillion tenge of unobserved economic activity.
- Almaty contributed the largest regional share at 3.78% of national GDP, followed by Astana at 2.52% and Turkestan Region at 0.95%.
- The smallest regional contributions were Ulytau Region at 0.10%, Abai Region at 0.30%, and North Kazakhstan Region at 0.35%.
Declining Trend
The unobserved economy's share of GDP has fallen almost continuously over the past four years, from 19.75% in 2021 to 18.78% in 2022 and 17.58% in 2023. In 2025 the indicator reached 15.69%, according to the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms. Kazakhstan's GDP in 2025 was 159.6 trillion tenge, making the unobserved portion about 25 trillion tenge.
Definitional Distinctions
International methodology classifies several types of activity as unobserved, including informal production by small producers and self-employed workers, household production for own consumption, and operations that cannot be directly captured in statistical reporting. Examples include milk from one's own cow, eggs from household chickens, meat prepared solely for family consumption, shuttle trade, tips, and construction by household members. Hidden activity, where legal businesses deliberately conceal part of their production, turnover, or income from the state, is recorded separately by the relevant authorities and corresponds to the common understanding of the shadow economy. Illegal activity — production and sale of goods and services prohibited by law — is a separate category, so the unobserved economy is not equal to the shadow economy, and the shadow economy is not equal to the criminal economy.
Regional Distribution
Almaty made the largest contribution to the unobserved economy in 2025 at 3.78% of national GDP, followed by Astana at 2.52% and Turkestan Region at 0.95%. The lowest contributions were Ulytau Region at 0.10%, Abai Region at 0.30%, and North Kazakhstan Region at 0.35%. Almaty's position reflects its role as Kazakhstan's largest business center, where even a relatively small share of directly unrecorded activity produces a large absolute result.
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Kazakhstan's unobserved economy shrinks to 15.69% of GDP in 2025
