Kazakhstan oil diversification stalls as CPC disruptions expose Russian-route dependence
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Kazakhstan's push to diversify oil exports remains constrained as CPC dependence and Russian port disruptions cut July 26 production to about 1 million barrels per day, from 2.16 million barrels per day in June. In 2025, the country exported 78.7 million metric tons of oil, of which 64.8 million metric tons were shipped through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. The country remains tied to Russian export infrastructure on both the Baltic and Black Sea routes even as drone attacks and suspensions have halted loadings.
Key Facts
- Druzhba pipeline shipments to Germany have been suspended since May.
- At least two KEBCO cargoes scheduled for late August at Ust-Luga will load instead at Novorossiysk, and no KEBCO loadings are planned at the Baltic port in September.
- The Sheskharis terminal at Novorossiysk halted crude loadings on August 14 after a drone attack and resumed operations on August 16.
- CPC volumes rose 18% in 2025 compared with 2024, largely as production increased following the Tengiz expansion.
- By July 22, oil and gas condensate production fell about 21% to 1.63 million barrels per day from a July average of 2.07 million, with Tengiz dropping to around 406,000 barrels per day from a July average of 925,000.
Diversification Constraints
Kazakhstan has spent years looking for more ways to export oil without relying so heavily on Russia. Shipments to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline have been suspended since May. Russia is now rerouting Kazakh crude from Ust-Luga to Novorossiysk to free Baltic capacity for its own oil. Exports from Russia's western ports ran 15% below plan in the first half of August, with Novorossiysk shipments of Russian Urals and Kazakh KEBCO falling to around 400,000 barrels per day. From a commercial standpoint, the decision is understandable, but Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk give Kazakhstan access to two different seas while remaining Russian ports.
Ust-Luga to Novorossiysk
At least two cargoes of Kazakhstan's KEBCO crude scheduled for loading at Ust-Luga in late August will instead be shipped through the Black Sea. No KEBCO loadings are currently planned at the Baltic port of Ust-Luga in September. The move will free up about 100,000 barrels per day of export capacity at Ust-Luga for Russian crude. Kazakh producers support the arrangement because shipments through Novorossiysk are currently more profitable. Novorossiysk had itself suspended crude loadings only a few days earlier, after an August 14 drone attack at the Sheskharis terminal.
CPC Dependence and Production Impact
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium remains Kazakhstan's largest export route, with its marine terminal near Novorossiysk separate from Sheskharis. In 2025, the country exported 78.7 million metric tons of oil, of which 64.8 million metric tons were shipped through CPC, and volumes through the pipeline rose 18% compared with 2024. After drone attacks near the CPC terminal forced loading restrictions in July, Kazakhstan's oil and gas condensate production fell about 21% by July 22 to roughly 1.63 million barrels per day, from a July average of 2.07 million barrels per day. On July 26, Kazakhstan produced around 1 million barrels per day of oil and gas condensate, down from an average of 2.16 million barrels per day in June. Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak all had to reduce production, and CPC resumed loadings on July 27 after a week-long suspension.
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Kazakhstan oil diversification stalls as CPC disruptions expose Russian-route dependence
