ACDC finds 152 Polymarket wallets may have traded on US military secrets
This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.
The Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified 152 Polymarket wallets that bet on U.S. military and defense markets and earned $8 million collectively, according to research published Thursday. The study found patterns suggesting the wallets may have traded on military secrets, and some bets attracted copycat wagers before U.S. military action against Iran. Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment but says it monitors suspicious activity and has referred dozens of wallets to authorities.
Key Facts
- The Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified 556 Polymarket wallets — called Orcas — that frequently appeared, traded, and disappeared.
- 152 wallets bet on military and defense markets, earning $8 million collectively with an average win rate of 97.2%.
- ACDC defined a long-shot bet as a wager of at least $2,500 placed cumulatively in an hour or less on an outcome with odds of 35% or lower.
- Some military bets attracted copycat wagers before U.S. military action against Iran, according to the report.
- Polymarket says it has referred dozens of trader wallets to authorities, including after a U.S. soldier was charged in April with using classified information to bet on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's removal.
The Orca Wallets
The Anti-Corruption Data Collective analyzed all settled Polymarket markets through May 5 to identify long-shot bets. It defined a long-shot bet as a wager of at least $2,500 placed cumulatively in an hour or less on an outcome with odds of 35% or lower. Within that universe, ACDC found 556 wallets it dubbed Orcas, a reference to the killer whale's precise and selective hunting tactics. These traders typically opened an account, quickly placed a highly successful long-shot bet in a niche market where insiders may have an informational edge, and then cashed out and disappeared. ACDC noted that Orca traits may have other explanations, including pure luck, and that not all potential insiders are Orcas.
Military Betting Patterns
Of the 556 Orcas, 152 wallets bet on military and defense markets, making $8 million collectively with an average win rate of 97.2%. Some of those military bets attracted copycat wagers before U.S. military action against Iran, according to the report. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. soldier prosecutors say made $400,000 betting on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's removal, built his position more slowly and is not among the 152 military Orcas. Van Dyke, who was charged in April with using classified information, has pleaded not guilty. ACDC said it discovered dozens of previously unreported wallets among the 152, though some had already been flagged by other researchers and media.
Polymarket and Regulatory Scrutiny
Polymarket, founded in 2020, did not respond to requests for comment. The company says it has strict controls, closely monitors for suspicious activity, and has referred dozens of trader wallets to authorities, including in the Maduro case. Polymarket's international platform settles trades on a blockchain, meaning wagers are public while traders remain anonymous. Lawmakers have said such bets could hurt national security, and policymakers have increased scrutiny of the prediction market industry.
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ACDC finds 152 Polymarket wallets may have traded on US military secrets
