Coal remains top global power source as IEA expects 10,974 TWh in 2026
This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.
The IEA expects coal to generate 10,974 terawatt-hours in 2026, nearly one-third of global electricity output. Natural gas is a distant second at 6,976 TWh, followed by hydropower, solar, wind and nuclear. China and India rely on coal for 55% and 71% of power respectively, with Southeast Asia at 48%.
Key Facts
- The IEA expects coal-fired power plants to generate 10,974 TWh in 2026, nearly one-third of the 33,313 TWh of electricity produced worldwide.
- Natural gas is forecast at 6,976 TWh, hydropower at 4,536 TWh, solar at 3,289 TWh, wind at 2,898 TWh and nuclear at 2,871 TWh.
- The IEA expects renewables collectively to overtake coal in 2026 for the first time, but no individual source is close to coal.
- The IEA had forecast a 1.3% decline in coal generation in 2026, but now expects an increase after the US-Iran war lifted gas prices.
- China relied on coal for about 55% of its electricity in 2025, India for roughly 71%, and Southeast Asia for about 48%.
Global Power Mix
Coal is expected to generate 10,974 TWh in 2026, nearly one-third of the 33,313 TWh of electricity produced worldwide. Natural gas is forecast at 6,976 TWh, hydropower at 4,536 TWh, solar at 3,289 TWh, wind at 2,898 TWh and nuclear at 2,871 TWh. Coal will generate nearly as much electricity as natural gas and hydropower combined. Coal will produce 77% more power than wind and solar combined.
War-Driven Forecast Shift
The IEA entered 2026 expecting coal-fired power generation to fall, after its Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025 forecast a 1.3% decline as renewable output surged and natural gas displaced coal in some markets. The ongoing US-Iran war has cut LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and sent gas prices sharply higher in Europe and Asia. Higher gas prices have made coal considerably more competitive for power generators able to switch between fuels. The IEA now expects gas-fired generation to remain essentially flat in 2026, compared with a 1.3% increase it expected before the war. Coal generation is now expected to rise instead.
Asia's Coal Dependence
China generates more than half of the world's coal-fired electricity, and coal supplied around 55% of Chinese electricity in 2025. India is even more dependent, with coal supplying roughly 71% of Indian electricity last year. Across Southeast Asia, coal's share was about 48%. China continued building more wind and solar capacity than the rest of the world combined in 2025.
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Coal remains top global power source as IEA expects 10,974 TWh in 2026
