IEA Forecasts Record Global Coal Demand of 8.94 Billion Tonnes in 2026

September 21, 2026 at 12:00 AM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

The International Energy Agency expects global coal demand to rise 1.2% in 2026 to a record 8.94 billion metric tonnes. The increase is driven by high natural gas prices after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced several countries to switch back to coal. China and India are projected to consume 5 billion and 1.353 billion tonnes respectively.

Key Facts

The IEA projects global coal demand will rise 1.2% in 2026 to a record 8.94 billion metric tonnes.
China's coal demand is expected to reach 5 billion tonnes, up 1%, while India's is forecast at 1.353 billion tonnes, up 4.2%.
Japan, India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, China, and some European countries have increased coal use due to LNG shortages from the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Global coal production hit a record high in 2025 but is expected to decline slightly in 2026.
The UN has acknowledged for the first time that the world is set to overshoot the 1.5°C global warming limit.

Hormuz Disruption and Coal Switch

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted global energy trade, pushing oil and gas prices higher. The massive reduction in LNG shipments through the strait has forced several countries to face energy shortages and turn to other sources. Japan, India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, China, and some European countries have increased coal use to fill the gap. China's coal consumption for chemical production has also risen in recent months due to high oil prices.

IEA Demand Projections

In its mid-year update, the IEA predicted coal use would likely increase in some regions owing to higher natural gas prices in 2026. The IEA expects global coal demand to rise by 1.2% in 2026, bringing consumption to a record 8.94 billion metric tonnes. China's demand is projected to rise 1% to 5 billion tonnes, while India's is forecast to increase 4.2% to 1.353 billion tonnes. Global coal production matched a record high in 2025 but is expected to decrease slightly year over year in 2026.

El Niño and Climate Concerns

Coal consumption may increase further in some regions if a particularly strong El Niño weather pattern occurs, as predicted. Higher-than-normal temperatures and lower hydropower output could drive up power demand across Asia, including India and Vietnam. The UN has acknowledged for the first time that the world is set to overshoot its target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.