Kazakhstan's 145-seat Kurultai election offers no guarantee of political change
This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.
Kazakhstan will elect a new 145-seat unicameral Kurultai on August 23, replacing the bicameral parliament after a June constitutional referendum. Seven parties are contesting the vote after Amanat and Adilet merged on June 12; Adilet, led by former presidential administration head Aibek Dadebay, is expected to dominate. Surveys conducted from June 13 to August 17 put declared turnout intention at 70.3 to 75.6 percent.
Key Facts
- Kazakhstan will elect a 145-seat unicameral Kurultai on August 23, replacing the previous bicameral parliament.
- Seven parties are contesting the vote after the June 12 merger of Amanat and Adilet; Adilet is headed by Aibek Dadebay, recently head of the presidential administration.
- In the 2023 Majilis election, Amanat won 62 of 98 seats; no other party held more than eight.
- As of July 23, the Central Election Commission had registered 545 candidates for the 145 seats.
- Seven polls conducted from June 13 to August 17 put declared turnout intention at 70.3 to 75.6 percent.
The New Legislature
Kazakhstan will elect a new 145-seat unicameral Kurultai on August 23, replacing the previous bicameral parliament. The body was established through the June constitutional referendum and is named after a traditional political and military council of Mongol and Turkic peoples. All 145 seats will be elected by proportional representation on party lists, unlike the 2023 election, which used a mixed system with 69 party-list seats and 29 constituency seats. As of July 23, the Central Election Commission had registered 545 candidates for the 145 seats.
Parties and Politics
Seven political parties are contesting the election after the June 12 merger of ruling Amanat, formerly Nur-Otan, with Adilet. Adilet is headed by Aibek Dadebay, recently head of the presidential administration. The new party raced from nonexistence to registration in record time while opposition parties have struggled for years to obtain registration. In the 2023 Majilis election, Amanat won 62 of 98 seats; Auyl held eight, Respublica and Aq Jol six each, QHP five, and JSDP four. Adilet is expected to dominate; the genuine test is the new legislature's post-election record, not the vote itself.
Turnout Expectations
The Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President aggregated seven sociological surveys conducted from June 13 to August 17. Despite differences in timing, methodology, and sample size, all seven surveys show similar readiness to vote. DATAMetrics recorded 75.6 percent intending to participate, Institute of Eurasian Integration measurements 72.1 and 73.2 percent, and KIOR 75.1 and 70.3 percent. Institute of Public Policy and Institute of Democracy recorded 72.3 and 73.1 percent respectively, putting overall declared turnout between 70.3 and 75.6 percent. The institute says undecided voter numbers are shrinking and party preferences are becoming clearer.
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Kazakhstan's 145-seat Kurultai election offers no guarantee of political change
