Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries force Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to seek new fuel suppliers
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Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have prompted Moscow to restrict fuel exports, spurring Central Asian nations to rapidly diversify supplies. Kyrgyzstan, previously dependent on Russia for 90 percent of its fuel, is building a refinery and seeking imports from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and beyond. Tajikistan tripled fuel purchases from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in July while Russian supplies halved.
Russia's Export Cuts
Russia's decision to limit fuel exports stems from Ukraine's sustained drone campaign against refineries, causing domestic shortages. In late July, Moscow agreed to supply Kyrgyzstan only about 100,000 tons of petroleum products monthly, half the requested volume. Tajikistan received just over 14,000 tons of Russian gasoline in July, roughly half the previous level, as overall fuel imports from Russia declined sharply.
Central Asian Diversification
Kyrgyzstan has struck deals with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and China, and is exploring imports from Turkey and the EU. The country is fast-tracking a refinery with an annual capacity of 450,000 tons, potentially operational by end-2026 and covering nearly a quarter of domestic demand. Tajikistan in July tripled fuel imports from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan to 34,000 tons, and is negotiating additional supplies with Kazakhstan and China. The Energy Ministry reports fuel reserves sufficient for about 60 days.
Uzbekistan's Jet Fuel Surge
Uzbekistan, which produces about 60% of its fuel needs domestically (100,000 tons/month), has diversified suppliers to include Georgia and Iraq. A sharp increase in flights traversing Central Asian airspace, partly due to Russians rerouting travel amid sanctions, has spiked jet fuel demand. Tashkent is working to boost domestic jet fuel production and reports 2–3 months of reserves, while authorities seek to calm public concern over shortages.
What's Next
The first test of the region's supply resilience will come this winter, as demand peaks and new agreements are put into practice. Analysts question whether Russia's long-term position as Central Asia's primary fuel supplier can recover once diversification is cemented.
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Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries force Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to seek new fuel suppliers
