Central Asian states seek new fuel suppliers after Russian export cuts from drone strikes
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Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refineries has forced Moscow to limit fuel exports, prompting Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to scramble for alternative supplies. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, previously dependent on Russia for 90% of fuel, are now importing from neighboring states while racing to avoid a winter energy crisis.
Russian Export Squeeze
Repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have led the Kremlin to cap fuel exports to cope with domestic shortages. In late July, Russia agreed to supply Kyrgyzstan with only 100,000 tons of petroleum products per month, about half the country’s demand. Tajikistan saw Russian gasoline shipments fall by roughly 50% in July, to just over 14,000 tons, according to Reuters. The cuts upend a decades-old supply pattern that left Central Asian states deeply dependent on Russian fuel.
Kyrgyzstan’s Diversification Push
Bishkek has struck small supply deals with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Belarus and China, and is seeking additional fuel from Turkey and the EU. The government is also accelerating construction of a refinery that could produce 450,000 tons per year — roughly a quarter of national demand — by the end of 2026. A late-July agreement with Russia covered only half of the expected need, compelling Kyrgyz officials to explore new suppliers and boost domestic capacity.
Tajik and Uzbek Adjustments
Tajikistan tripled fuel imports from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in July, reaching 34,000 tons, while holding reserves sufficient for about 60 days. Uzbekistan, which meets 60% of its fuel needs domestically, has turned to Georgia and Iraq and faces a spike in jet fuel demand as flights from Russia increase. Tashkent estimates its reserves can last two to three months, and both countries are in talks with China and Kazakhstan for additional supplies.
What's Next
Kyrgyzstan’s refinery could come online by late 2026, but it remains unclear whether the combined regional diversification will fully offset Russian shortfalls before the fall-winter heating season. Analysts warn that prolonged disruption of Russian fuel exports may test Central Asia’s energy security and disrupt transportation and agriculture.
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Central Asian states seek new fuel suppliers after Russian export cuts from drone strikes
