Lithuania warns Russia could use Ukrainian drones in false flag attack
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Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas warned on August 6 that Russia is considering using Ukrainian-made drones to strike critical infrastructure in the Baltic region, in a false flag operation designed to obscure the attacker’s identity. No decision has been made and no imminent threat exists, Kaunas said, though he noted the aim would be to weaken allied support for Kyiv. The assessment comes as Baltic states push NATO for a full air defense mission after a series of drone incursions.
The Warning
Lithuanian military intelligence believes Moscow is weighing “unconventional kinetic attacks” against Baltic infrastructure using Ukrainian-made drones, Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas confirmed on August 6. The assessment, first reported by Lithuanian news portal 15min.lt, described the scenario as “a false flag operation, using a false Ukrainian drone” aimed at weakening allied support for Kyiv. Kaunas said no decision to carry out such an operation had been taken and there was no sign of an imminent threat, without identifying potential targets or a timeframe.
Recent Airspace Breaches
Two Russian-designed Gerbera drones crossed from Belarus into Lithuania in July 2025; one overflew Vilnius before crashing inside the Gaižiūnai training area with an active warhead, prompting Vilnius to close airspace along the border. In March 2026, a suspected cross-border drone exploded in southern Lithuania. NATO fighters have also engaged drones: a Romanian F-16 shot one down over southern Estonia on May 19, 2026, and a French Rafale destroyed another over Latvia on June 8, both operating from Lithuania’s Šiauliai Air Base.
Baltic Air Defense Demands
The warning follows a joint call in May 2026 by the presidents of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for NATO to transition from air policing to a full air defense mission with dedicated counter-drone capabilities. Moscow denies planning attacks on NATO members and previously dismissed Lithuanian warnings as a pretext for rearmament. Russia separately accuses the Baltic states of allowing their airspace to be used for Ukrainian strikes, which Vilnius and Kyiv both reject.
What's Next
NATO defense ministers are expected to discuss the Baltic air defense request at their next meeting. It remains unclear whether Russia intends to proceed with a false flag operation, given the absence of a final decision.
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Lithuania warns Russia could use Ukrainian drones in false flag attack
