Heritage report: U.S. would exhaust China-war interceptors within days

August 5, 2026 at 05:00 AM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

The United States would run out of the missile interceptors needed to shoot down Chinese weapons within days of a conflict, a Heritage Foundation report concludes, citing years of neglect and the ongoing war with Iran. The assessment mirrors a 2023 CSIS analysis that predicted depletion within a week. The White House and defense contractors have taken steps to boost output, but experts say those efforts are insufficient.

Interceptor Depletion

The Heritage report estimates that U.S. stocks of Patriot PAC-3 MSE, THAAD, and Standard Missiles (SM-6, SM-3) would be exhausted within the first week of a Taiwan conflict. A 2023 CSIS study similarly warned of a seven-day drain. During the first four days of Operation Epic Fury in Iran, allied forces expended 1,738 surface-to-air munitions against 565 ballistic and 57 cruise missiles, underscoring the high burn rate in combat.

Production Ramp-Up

In January, the White House set a goal to triple PAC-3 missile production from 600 to 2,000 annually. On Monday, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and the Pentagon announced a $3 billion deal to quadruple THAAD interceptor output over seven years and expand solid rocket motor capacity. Northrop says it has doubled motor output since 2021 and aims to triple by 2027, aided by a billion-dollar Allegany Ballistics Laboratory investment.

Expert Critique

Tom Karako of CSIS calls the Pentagon’s January targets too low, noting they were set before Operation Epic Fury consumed vast stores. “Those metrics were set prior to … a decade’s worth of production per work in some cases,” he said. The Heritage report adds that even with current efforts, a “window of vulnerability” will persist for several years until inventories recover, and longer to reach desired levels.