Singapore Iron Ore Futures Drop to One-Year Low as China Demand Slumps
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Singapore iron ore futures fell to $93.65 a ton on Monday, the lowest since July 2025, extending a selloff driven by weak Chinese steel demand and rising supply. The drop came as UBS analyst Myles Allsop said prices are testing the low end of the range and the market is heading into a larger surplus. Concerns over trader Radiant World added to bearish sentiment, though the company denied allegations of fake invoices.
The Price Drop
Singapore iron ore futures fell as much as 2.3% to $93.65 a ton on Monday, the lowest intraday level since July 2025. The most-active Dalian contract dropped nearly 3%. The selloff extends a bearish trend in the steelmaking raw material as weakening Chinese demand, softer steel margins, and increasing supply pressure the market.
Demand-Supply Imbalance
Steel demand in China remains soft amid a construction slump and lower mill margins, while global supply continues to rise. UBS analyst Myles Allsop said fundamentals are deteriorating, inventories have risen materially over the past year, and prices are testing the low end of the range. The bank expects iron ore to average $100 a ton in 2026 and $95 in 2027, with scrap beginning to displace demand from 2027. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Vitol and Cargill stopped dealing with trader Radiant World over fake invoice concerns, which Radiant World denied.
What's Next
UBS projects iron ore to average $100 per ton in 2026 before declining to $95 in 2027 as scrap use increases. Whether Beijing will implement new infrastructure stimulus to absorb the surplus remains unclear.
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Singapore Iron Ore Futures Drop to One-Year Low as China Demand Slumps
