Iran holds strategic deterrence edge over US as Trump hesitates on escalation, analysts say
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President Trump’s repeated pullbacks from full-scale strikes on Iran have shifted the strategic balance in Tehran’s favor, with experts warning that Iran now holds a deterrence edge. The Islamic Republic expanded its regional proxy attacks while warning Gulf neighbors they would be targets, even as US-led diplomacy with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz entered final stages. The shift comes amid Trump’s sinking approval ratings on the Iran war and economy ahead of November midterm elections.
Iran's Deterrence Edge
Analysts say Iran and its proxies “see blood in the water” and seek to prolong the conflict rather than inflict immediate heavy damage. Afshon Ostovar of the Naval Postgraduate School told the Financial Times that the longer the war continues, the weaker the resolve of Iran’s enemies will be. Dennis Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official, said it has become increasingly hard to ignore that Iran now holds the strategic advantage in deterrence. Trump approved a new attack last week but reversed course, attributing the decision to allied pleas for diplomacy.
Proxy Escalation and Gulf Warnings
Iran has used proxies like Yemen’s Houthis to threaten Red Sea shipping via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, aiming to bypass the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Last week, Iran launched what U.S. Central Command called an “attempted surprise attack” on American bases, crossing Trump’s red line after killing U.S. troops in Jordan the previous month. Tehran also warned Persian Gulf states they will be targeted if the U.S. resumes bombardment, demonstrating that its long-range weapons can penetrate American air defenses.
Diplomatic Window with Oman
Iran announced that negotiations with Oman over reopening the Strait of Hormuz are in their final stages, according to Al Jazeera. The diplomatic track comes as Trump’s approval ratings on the war and the economy have slumped, with even some Republicans wavering. An Iranian diplomat told the Wall Street Journal that Tehran is prepared to exploit Trump’s political vulnerability and would consider preemptive strikes if talks collapse. Global energy markets have drawn down inventories sharply, with analysts warning of potential “tank bottoms” without a strait reopening.
What's Next
The Oman-mediated talks are reportedly nearing completion, but it remains unclear whether Trump will accept terms that could be seen as capitulation. Analysts warn that failure could prompt preemptive Iranian strikes, raising the risk of a wider war just as U.S. midterm elections approach.
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Iran holds strategic deterrence edge over US as Trump hesitates on escalation, analysts say
