PIK study detects global warming acceleration to 0.35°C per decade since 2015
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A new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) finds that global warming has accelerated sharply since 2015, reaching about 0.35°C per decade. The analysis, published in Geophysical Research Letters on August 1, filtered out natural factors like El Niño and volcanic eruptions, revealing the acceleration with over 98% statistical certainty across five major global temperature datasets. The rate is nearly double the 1970–2015 average of just under 0.2°C per decade.
The Acceleration Signal
Global warming has shifted to a faster pace, with temperatures rising at an estimated 0.35°C per decade from 2015 to 2026, according to the PIK study. This rate is the highest for any decade since instrumental records began in 1880, and compares with an average of just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970 to 2015. The acceleration became visible around 2013–2015 and was detected with over 98% statistical certainty, confirming that the change is not random variation. Lead author Stefan Rahmstorf noted that the adjusted data show the acceleration consistently across all five datasets examined, independent of analysis method.
Filtering Natural Fluctuations
Researchers isolated the long-term warming signal by removing short-term natural influences known as 'noise,' including El Niño events, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycle variations. El Niño can temporarily boost global temperatures by releasing heat from the tropical Pacific, while volcanic aerosols reflect sunlight and cause temporary cooling. By accounting for these effects in datasets from NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, and ERA5, the team made the underlying trend clearer. 'We filter out known natural influences ... so that the “noise” is reduced, making the underlying long-term warming signal more clearly visible,' said co-author Grant Foster.
What's Next
The study authors say the acceleration is consistent with climate model projections that assume continued greenhouse gas emissions, but they stress the need for further analysis to attribute the exact drivers. With global carbon emissions still near record highs, it remains uncertain whether the current pace will persist or if policy interventions could alter the trajectory.
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PIK study detects global warming acceleration to 0.35°C per decade since 2015
